WEEKLY MARKET RECAP

THE BIG PICTURE

After five consecutive weeks of losses — the longest slide since 2022 — the market finally caught a bid. The S&P 500 posted its first weekly gain since the Iran conflict began, rising 3.4% to close Thursday at 6,583. The Nasdaq surged 4.4%, and the Dow added 3.0%. The VIX retreated sharply from last week’s 31+ to settle at 23.87, still elevated but off the crisis highs.

The catalyst was a powerful Tuesday rally — the Nasdaq’s best single session since May, up 3.83% — triggered by a Wall Street Journal report that President Trump told aides he would consider ending the war even without fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Quarter-end rebalancing flows added fuel. But the week was not without whiplash: Thursday opened down 600+ points on the Dow after Trump vowed Wednesday night to strike Iran “extremely hard.” Markets recovered by the close on reports that Iran was drafting a shipping protocol with Oman.

Markets closed Friday for Good Friday — meaning the surprisingly strong March jobs report will be digested when trading resumes Monday.

MARKET SNAPSHOT

• S&P 500: 6,583 | +3.4% weekly | Rally

• Dow Jones: 46,505 | +3.0% | Rally

• Nasdaq Composite: 21,879 | +4.4% | Rally

• Russell 2000: 2,530 | +3.3% | Rally

• VIX: 23.87 | −23% weekly | Fear Easing

• 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.31% | −13 bps/wk | Easing

• DXY (Dollar Index): ~99.5 | Flat | Neutral

• WTI Crude Oil: $111.29 | +11.7% Thursday | Surging

• Brent Crude Oil: $107.57 | −4.4%/wk | Volatile

• Gold: $4,703 | +3.9%/wk | Recovery

Note: Thursday’s close is the final trading print. Markets were closed Friday for Good Friday.

THEME #1: OIL VOLATILITY INTENSIFIES — WTI ABOVE $111

Oil prices remained the market’s center of gravity. WTI crude spiked to $111.29 per barrel on Thursday — up 11.6% on the day alone — after Trump vowed further military escalation. Brent traded at $107.57, with WTI trading above the global benchmark for the first time in a year, reflecting how acutely domestic supply fears have intensified.

The conflict is now in its fifth week. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with roughly 500 million barrels of total liquids lost since the war began. The week produced deeply conflicting signals: Trump claimed Iran allowed 10 tankers through as a “present,” Iran reported it was negotiating a shipping protocol with Oman, and Iran’s president said the country was ready to end the war with guarantees. Yet Trump simultaneously vowed to “bring them back to the Stone Ages” and announced the largest wave of new strikes.

Industry leaders at CERAWeek painted a grim picture. Chevron’s CEO warned of “very real, physical manifestations” of the Hormuz closure spreading globally, while Shell’s CEO noted disruptions migrating from South Asia to Europe. Analysts at BCA Research estimated the world has lost 4.5–5 million barrels per day — a figure that could double by mid-April.

Brent posted a roughly 55% gain for March — a record for the contract dating back to 1988, surpassing the 46% rise during the first Gulf War in 1990. Energy remains the dominant sector trade of 2026.

THEME #2: MARCH PAYROLLS REBOUND — +178K JOBS

The March nonfarm payrolls report, released Friday while markets were closed, delivered a significant positive surprise. The economy added 178,000 jobs — nearly three times the consensus estimate of 60,000 and the strongest monthly print since December 2024. The unemployment rate (the share of the labor force actively seeking but unable to find work) edged down to 4.3% from 4.4%.

The rebound was concentrated in sectors depressed by temporary factors in February:

• Healthcare: +76,000 (Kaiser Permanente strikers returned)

• Construction: +26,000 (weather improvement)

• Transportation & Warehousing: +21,000

• Manufacturing: +15,000

• Federal Government: −18,000 (continued decline; total federal losses now 355K since October 2024)

• Financial Activities: −15,000

Crucially for the inflation picture, wage growth cooled. Average hourly earnings rose just +0.2% month-over-month and +3.5% year-over-year — the lowest annual reading since May 2021 and both below expectations. This is an important signal: the labor market is producing jobs without generating wage-push inflation.

February’s payrolls were revised sharply lower to −133,000 from the initially reported −92,000, while January was revised up to +160,000. The net: a labor market averaging roughly 68,000 jobs per month in Q1 — well below recent years’ pace, but not collapsing.

THEME #3: THE FED HOLDS — POWELL WALKS THE TIGHTROPE

The FOMC held rates at 3.50–3.75% on March 18 by an 11–1 vote (Governor Miran dissented, preferring a cut). The updated dot plot showed a median of one additional cut in 2026 — unchanged from December but with a wider range of views. Seven of 19 officials now expect no cuts at all this year.

Three key takeaways continued to shape this week’s trading:

• Rate hike ruled out: Powell explicitly signaled a 2026 rate hike is unlikely, removing a major overhang for risk assets.

• Inflation forecast raised: The Fed now projects 2.7% PCE inflation in 2026, up from 2.5% in December. Powell acknowledged progress on inflation is “not as much as we had hoped.”

• “Stagflation” rejected: Powell refused the label, arguing current conditions — unemployment near 4%, inflation 1 point above target — don’t warrant it. But he acknowledged the “tension” between the Fed’s mandates.

Following Friday’s strong payrolls report, futures now price a 77.5% probability the Fed stays on hold through year-end. Monetary policy is effectively frozen until the geopolitical picture resolves.

THE WEEK AHEAD: APRIL 7–11

• Monday, April 7 — Markets reopen and digest payrolls. The +178K jobs print arrived with markets closed. Monday’s open will be the first chance to react. Expect energy and rate-sensitive sectors to reprice based on the wage cooling signal.

• Tuesday, April 8 — PCE Price Index (February). The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Pre-dates the oil shock but sets the baseline. Consensus expects core PCE near 2.6%.

• Thursday, April 10 — Delta Air Lines (DAL) earnings. A critical real-time read on how surging jet fuel costs are hitting corporate margins. Airlines are the canary in the oil-shock coal mine.

• April 6 deadline — Trump’s extended Iran deadline. Previously set as the deadline for strikes on Iran’s power infrastructure. Any action or extension will move oil and equities sharply.

• Q1 earnings season ramp-up. Major bank earnings begin the following week. Levi’s and Constellation Brands report this week, offering early reads on consumer health.

THE TAKEAWAY

This week delivered what the market needed most: a reason to believe the cycle of selling could pause. The S&P 500’s 3.4% gain — its first positive week in six — was driven by quarter-end rebalancing, de-escalation headlines, and relief that the Fed took a rate hike off the table. The strong March payrolls report, with its cooler wage growth, adds to the case that the labor market is bending but not breaking.

But it would be premature to declare the all-clear. WTI above $111 underscores that the oil shock is not over — it is intensifying. Brent’s 55% surge in March was the largest monthly gain in the contract’s 38-year history. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Even the most optimistic scenarios imply weeks before shipping normalizes and months before oil markets rebalance.

The setup entering April is one of cautious optimism layered over structural uncertainty. The market has found technical support, earnings season is approaching, and the Fed is on pause. But the single most consequential variable remains the status of the Strait of Hormuz. Until traffic resumes meaningfully, every rally will be fragile and every headline from the Middle East will move markets. Position accordingly.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The author is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial planner. All analysis represents the author’s interpretation of publicly available data and may contain errors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Markets involve substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.