SAAM Daily Morning Brief — Thursday, March 5, 2026

Published pre-market | All data as of approximately 7:00 AM ET unless otherwise noted

Market Snapshot

U.S. equity futures are pulling back modestly this morning after Wednesday’s broad rally, as investors weigh ongoing Middle East tensions against a flurry of earnings catalysts and key labor market data due out today.

S&P 500 Futures (ESH26): ~6,849, down approximately 0.3% from Wednesday’s close of 6,869.50
Dow Jones Futures: ~48,640, off roughly 0.2%
Nasdaq 100 Futures (NQH26): Approximately flat, hovering near the unchanged line
Russell 2000 Futures: Down approximately 0.2%
VIX (CBOE Volatility Index): Trading near 20, well above pre-conflict levels in the mid-15s but off Tuesday’s spike above 25 — a sign that fear has receded somewhat but hasn’t normalized
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.119%, continuing to climb from 3.96% at the end of February as the bond market prices in a higher inflation premium tied to surging energy costs
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): ~98.89, up 0.1%, benefiting from safe-haven flows
WTI Crude Oil: $76.24/bbl, up 2.1% overnight as Brent crude pushes toward $83; oil remains elevated amid Strait of Hormuz threats, though Wednesday’s session marked the first pullback in WTI since the conflict began after Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled forthcoming measures to support energy flows
Gold: ~$5,164/oz, up roughly 1.0%, continuing to trade near historic levels as haven demand persists

Global Context: European markets are trading lower, with the Stoxx 600 retreating about 0.2%. Asian markets were mixed overnight — South Korea’s Kospi surged 10% (its best day since 2008) in a dramatic snap-back from this week’s brutal selloff, while Japan’s Nikkei gave back early gains to finish roughly flat. China set its lowest GDP growth target in decades at the National People’s Congress, adding a cautious tone to the Asian session. Iran vowed overnight to escalate retaliation against U.S. strikes, which pushed Brent crude back toward $84 before pulling back slightly.

What’s Moving Pre-Market

Broadcom (AVGO) — Up approximately 5% in after-hours and pre-market trading after delivering a strong fiscal Q1 earnings beat and issuing guidance well above consensus. CEO Hock Tan said the company has visibility to over $100 billion in AI chip revenue by 2027. More on this below.
GitLab (GTLB) — Down roughly 8% after full-year guidance fell short of expectations, even as Q4 earnings and revenue topped estimates. Fiscal year revenue guidance of $1.10–$1.12 billion came in below the $1.12 billion Street consensus, and EPS guidance of $0.76–$0.80 missed the $1.05 estimate.
Box (BOX) — Up about 6% following a Q4 beat on both the top and bottom lines. The company reported EPS of $0.49 versus the $0.34 consensus and gave above-consensus guidance, a welcome surprise in a software sector that has been battered by AI disruption fears in 2026.
JD.com (JD) — Reported full-year 2025 results this morning showing a 13% increase in net revenues to $187.2 billion, though non-GAAP net margins declined year-over-year.
Target (TGT) — Continuing to rally after Telsey Advisory Group upgraded shares to Outperform, citing confidence in the company’s strategy to recapture its merchandising edge and leverage AI across operations.

Sector Spotlight

Information Technology continues to command the market’s attention. Wednesday’s session was led by semiconductors — Micron Technology (MU) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) each surged over 5%, while Nvidia (NVDA) added 1.7%. The Broadcom earnings report after the bell should provide further tailwind for the group today. The AI spending narrative remains firmly intact, and custom silicon demand from hyperscalers (a fancy way of saying the massive cloud infrastructure companies like Google, Amazon, and Meta) appears to be accelerating. This sector’s relative strength versus the S&P 500 is reasserting itself after a choppy February.

Energy remains the other sector to watch closely. The SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE) has surged roughly 27% year-to-date, dramatically outpacing the broader market. While WTI crude pulled back modestly on Wednesday after Bessent’s comments about protecting Gulf energy flows, the underlying geopolitical risk premium in oil prices has not fully unwound. Any re-escalation of Strait of Hormuz threats could send energy stocks higher — but if diplomatic channels gain traction, the sector could give back some of its recent gains quickly. Retail investors poured a record $49 million into XLE on Monday alone, surpassing the prior record set during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Economic Calendar — Thursday, March 5

Time (ET)ReleasePriorConsensus7:30 AMChallenger Job Cuts (Feb)TBD—8:30 AMInitial Jobless Claims (week ending Mar 1)212K~215K8:30 AMContinuing Jobless ClaimsTBD—

Looking Ahead: Tomorrow (Friday, March 6) brings the February nonfarm payrolls report — arguably the most important data point of the week. Wednesday’s ADP private payrolls report came in stronger than expected, which boosted sentiment during yesterday’s session. If tomorrow’s jobs number confirms labor market resilience, it could further solidify the “higher-for-longer” rate narrative. The CME FedWatch tool currently shows a 95.6% probability that the Fed holds rates steady at 3.50–3.75% at the March 18 meeting, with summer rate-cut expectations having largely evaporated amid the oil-driven inflation scare.

Broadcom Earnings: AI Momentum Accelerates

Broadcom (AVGO) delivered a fiscal Q1 that reinforced its position as one of the primary beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure buildout. Here are the key numbers:

The Results: Revenue came in at $19.31 billion, up 29% year-over-year and ahead of the $19.18 billion consensus estimate. Non-GAAP EPS (earnings per share — the company’s adjusted profit figure that strips out stock-based compensation and other non-recurring items) was $2.05, beating the $2.03 Wall Street expected. GAAP net income rose to $7.35 billion. Adjusted EBITDA (a measure of operating profitability before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) hit a record $13.1 billion, representing 68% of revenue.

The AI Story: AI semiconductor revenue was the headline, coming in at $8.4 billion — up a staggering 106% year-over-year and above the company’s own forecast. This marks the 12th consecutive quarter of AI-driven growth for Broadcom. The company designs custom AI accelerator chips (called XPUs) for hyperscaler clients and provides the networking technology that connects them within massive data centers.

The Guidance: This is where things got really interesting. Broadcom guided for Q2 revenue of $22.0 billion — well above the $20.56 billion consensus — with AI semiconductor revenue expected to surge 140% to $10.7 billion. The company is projecting a 47% revenue increase year-over-year for the quarter, a significant acceleration from Q1’s 29% growth rate.

The $100 Billion Call: CEO Hock Tan made what may be the most consequential statement of this earnings season, saying Broadcom now has “line of sight” to AI chip revenue exceeding $100 billion in fiscal 2027. He cited growing deployment commitments from key customers — noting specifically that Google’s tensor processing units for Anthropic are expected to reach one gigawatt in 2026 and over three gigawatts in 2027, while OpenAI is targeting over one gigawatt of its first-generation custom chip in 2027. Tan also defended Meta’s custom chip program (MTIA), calling its roadmap “alive and well” with multi-gigawatt capacity targets for 2027 and beyond.

Capital Return: Broadcom’s board authorized a new $10 billion share repurchase program through the end of 2026 and maintained the quarterly dividend at $0.65 per share (payable March 31). Free cash flow was $8.0 billion in the quarter, or 41% of revenue — a strong cash generation profile.

Market Reaction: Shares rose approximately 5% in extended trading to around $333, after closing the regular session at $317.53 (up 1.2% on the day). The stock remains down roughly 8% year-to-date and approximately 23% off its 52-week high of $414.61, suggesting the market had been pricing in uncertainty heading into the report. At roughly 30 times forward earnings, the valuation looks reasonable relative to the growth trajectory — though that multiple is contingent on the AI revenue forecasts materializing.

What to Watch: Wall Street analysts will likely use this report as a catalyst for estimate revisions. The key debate going forward centers on sustainability — can Broadcom maintain this growth trajectory into 2028 and beyond, or will hyperscaler spending eventually plateau? Tan addressed this on the call with a brief “yes” when asked about 2028 growth, but the market will want more detail in the quarters ahead.

For additional reading on Broadcom’s earnings:

The Takeaway

Markets are digesting a lot this morning: a strong Broadcom report that validates the AI spending thesis, a still-volatile geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East that’s keeping oil elevated and bond yields climbing, and a crucial jobs data sequence that begins today with claims and culminates tomorrow with payrolls. The weight of evidence suggests tech and semiconductors may continue to lead in the near term, particularly if the Broadcom report triggers a fresh wave of AI optimism — but the macro overhang from the Iran conflict and the looming tariff implementation later this week create meaningful two-way risk. Tread carefully, stay diversified, and keep an eye on oil prices as the barometer for broader market sentiment.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The author is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial planner. All analysis represents the author’s interpretation of publicly available data and may contain errors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Markets involve substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.