SAAM Daily Morning Brief — Monday, April 13, 2026

MARKET SNAPSHOT S&P 500 Futures: 6,811 — down 0.65% — Risk-off Nasdaq 100 Futures: 25,119 — down 0.64% — Cautious Dow Jones Futures: 47,680 — down 0.93% — Risk-off Russell 2000 Futures: 2,619 — down 0.97% — Pressured VIX (CBOE Volatility Index, a real-time gauge of expected S&P 500 volatility often called the “fear gauge”): ~19.2, rising in early trade 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.34%, edging higher WTI

MARKET SNAPSHOT

S&P 500 Futures: 6,811 — down 0.65% — Risk-off
Nasdaq 100 Futures: 25,119 — down 0.64% — Cautious
Dow Jones Futures: 47,680 — down 0.93% — Risk-off
Russell 2000 Futures: 2,619 — down 0.97% — Pressured
VIX (CBOE Volatility Index, a real-time gauge of expected S&P 500 volatility often called the “fear gauge”): ~19.2, rising in early trade
10Y Treasury Yield: 4.34%, edging higher
WTI Crude: $103.70 — up 7.4%
Brent Crude: ~$102.80 — up approximately 7–8%
Gold: $4,750 — down 0.8%
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of major currencies): 98.70, drifting lower

Friday’s session closed mixed. The S&P 500 slipped 0.11% to 6,817, the Dow lost 0.56% to 47,917, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.35% to 22,903 as chipmakers led — Broadcom (AVGO) surged 4.7% and Nvidia (NVDA) added 2.6%. Consumer Staples (XLP) were the session’s weakest sector, while Information Technology (XLK) outperformed.

Overnight, the geopolitical picture deteriorated sharply. VP Vance announced Saturday that U.S.–Iran talks in Pakistan collapsed, and President Trump responded by ordering a U.S. Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz targeting vessels entering or departing Iranian ports, effective 10:00 AM ET today. Asian markets fell roughly 0.9%, with Japan’s Nikkei and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng both under pressure. European futures point to openings approximately 1.5% lower, with European natural gas futures spiking as much as 18% on supply fears.

WHAT’S MOVING PRE-MARKET

Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) — Both trading sharply higher pre-market on the 7%+ crude surge. U.S.-based producers stand to benefit from both higher realized prices and rerouted tanker demand flowing to Gulf Coast export terminals.
Delta Air Lines (DAL) and United Airlines (UAL) — Expected lower pre-market. Jet fuel costs track crude closely, and a sustained move above $100/barrel compresses airline margins.
Goldman Sachs (GS) — Reports Q1 2026 earnings before the bell this morning. Consensus expects revenue of $16.9 billion (up ~12% year-over-year) and EPS (earnings per share, or net profit divided by shares outstanding) of $16.35. Watch for commentary on M&A deal flow and trading revenue amid elevated volatility.

TODAY’S KEY EVENTS

10:00 AM ET — U.S. Navy Hormuz blockade implementation begins. This is the session’s dominant catalyst. The blockade targets vessels entering or exiting Iranian ports. Any escalation — or a surprise diplomatic breakthrough — could move crude $5–10 in either direction, with cascading effects across Energy (XLE), Industrials (XLI), and rate-sensitive sectors.
Before the bell — Goldman Sachs (GS) Q1 2026 earnings. This kicks off a critical bank earnings week: JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) report Tuesday; Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) follow Wednesday. Focus on loan loss provisions (reserves set aside for potential defaults) and forward guidance. A beat with cautious guidance could weigh on Financials (XLF) if it signals management sees economic headwinds.

THE TAKEAWAY

The weight of evidence tilts risk-off to start the week. The Hormuz re-escalation sends crude surging and pressures consumer-facing and transportation sectors, while Energy names benefit. If crude stays above $100 and bank guidance turns cautious, the setup favors defensive positioning in Utilities (XLU) and Health Care (XLV) over cyclicals. Watch two things today: the 10:00 AM ET blockade implementation for diplomatic signals, and Goldman’s forward guidance for the first institutional read on how geopolitical risk is filtering into corporate outlooks.

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Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The author is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial planner. All analysis represents the author’s interpretation of publicly available data and may contain errors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Markets involve substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.