SAAM Daily Morning Brief

Market Snapshot

Futures are modestly lower as markets navigate a three-way tug-of-war: an in-line CPI report, fresh escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the prospect of the largest emergency oil reserve release in history.

• S&P 500 Futures: ~6,770, down 0.1%

• Nasdaq 100 Futures: ~22,650, down 0.1%

• Dow Jones Futures: ~47,670, down 0.25%

• VIX: ~24.5, still elevated but trending lower from Monday’s spike

• 10Y Treasury Yield: ~4.12%, edging higher as oil offsets the dovish signal from weak jobs data

• DXY (Dollar Index): ~99.2, roughly flat

• WTI Crude Oil: ~$85.55, up 2.5% this morning after Iran struck three cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, partially reversing Tuesday’s massive 12% selloff

• Gold: ~$5,181, pulling back modestly as risk appetite tentatively stabilizes

Tuesday’s Close: The Dow slipped 0.07% to 47,708, the S&P 500 dipped 0.21% to 6,777, and the Nasdaq was essentially flat at 22,698. Markets initially rallied on hopes for a swift end to the Iran conflict but reversed after the White House clarified that no naval escorts had yet occurred in the Strait of Hormuz and Defense Secretary Hegseth said Tuesday would be “our most intense day of strikes inside Iran.” WTI crude settled down 11.94% at $83.45 — the sharpest single-session drop in years — but the overnight ship attacks have revived supply concerns. (CNBC: Stock Market Live Updates)

What’s Moving Pre-Market

• Oracle (ORCL) — Surging roughly 10% after a strong fiscal Q3 report Tuesday after the bell. EPS of $1.79 beat by $0.10, revenue of $17.19B (+21.7% YoY) topped estimates by $280M, and cloud revenue hit $8.9B (+44% YoY). Management raised FY2027 revenue guidance by $1B to $90B. A clear signal that enterprise AI/cloud demand is accelerating. (CNBC: Oracle Earnings)

• Semiconductor stocks — Broad strength after TSMC reported a 30% increase in sales over the first two months of 2026. Nvidia (NVDA) gained 1.2%, Micron (MU) rose 3.5%, and Intel (INTC) added 2.6% on Tuesday. The GTC conference keynote on March 16 remains a near-term catalyst.

• J.M. Smucker (SJM) — Up ~1% pre-market after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock, citing falling green coffee prices and new activist involvement from Elliott Management.

• Cruise lines and airlines — Vulnerable to an oil reversal this morning after Iran’s overnight ship attacks. Carnival (CCL) and Norwegian (NCLH) remain down over 20% month-to-date.

Today’s Key Events

• 8:30 AM — February CPI (released). Headline CPI came in at +2.4% year-over-year, matching consensus. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) was +2.5% annually, also in line. Monthly readings were +0.3% headline and +0.2% core. The numbers confirm inflation remains “sticky” but offered no upside surprise — a modest positive. Critically, this data will not reflect the March oil spike, meaning the next CPI print could be considerably hotter.

• Pending — IEA Strategic Reserve Decision. The IEA has proposed a historic release of 400 million barrels of emergency oil — more than double the 182 million released during the Russia-Ukraine invasion in 2022. Member countries vote today; the proposal passes if no country objects. Goldman Sachs estimates the release would offset roughly 12 days of disrupted exports. This is the single most important near-term catalyst for oil prices.

• After close — Adobe (ADBE) earnings. AI monetization progress through Firefly and Creative Cloud will be the focus.

The Takeaway

The CPI print is a relief — no upside surprise takes one risk off the table for the Fed’s March 18 decision. But the real story remains oil. Tuesday’s 12% WTI crash showed how fast prices can unwind when de-escalation headlines hit, and this morning’s Strait of Hormuz attacks show how quickly they can re-escalate. The IEA reserve vote later today is arguably the most consequential near-term catalyst: a 400-million-barrel release would be unprecedented and could meaningfully cap crude in the short term. Until then, the oil-equity seesaw continues.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The author is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial planner. All analysis represents the author’s interpretation of publicly available data and may contain errors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Markets involve substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.