SAAM Daily Morning Brief

Market Snapshot

It’s Fed Day — and a hot PPI print just made Powell’s press conference even more consequential. Futures initially pointed higher on Nvidia GTC momentum, but reversed after February’s Producer Price Index came in at +0.7% MoM, more than double the 0.3% consensus.

• S&P 500 Futures: ~6,675, down 0.4% (reversed from +0.5% earlier)

• Nasdaq 100 Futures: ~22,350, down 0.4%

• Dow Jones Futures: ~46,750, down 0.6%

• VIX: ~24, still elevated but trending lower from last week’s peaks

• 10Y Treasury Yield: ~4.21%, rising on the hot PPI data

• DXY (Dollar Index): ~99.3, flat

• WTI Crude Oil: ~$96, up 2.9% after Israel struck Iranian natural gas processing facilities and Iraq’s oil exports via Turkey remain disrupted. WTI is up roughly 44% month-to-date.

• Gold: ~$4,874, down sharply as the dollar firms and yields rise on the PPI surprise

Tuesday’s Close: The S&P 500 rose 0.25% to 6,716, the Nasdaq gained 0.47% to 22,480, and the Dow added 47 points to 46,993. Consumer discretionary led on strong airline revenue guidance from Delta (DAL) and American Airlines (AAL). Brent crude rose 3% past $103. Amazon (AMZN) CEO Jassy projected AWS could reach $600B in sales over the next decade. (CNBC: Live Updates)

What’s Moving Pre-Market

• Nvidia (NVDA) — Remains the center of gravity as GTC continues through tomorrow. Reports this morning that Beijing approved the sale of Nvidia’s H200 chips in China — a regulatory breakthrough previously excluded from revenue forecasts. Huang’s $1 trillion cumulative revenue forecast through 2027 continues to underpin chip sentiment.

• Qualcomm (QCOM) — Announced a $20B share buyback this morning, signaling confidence in its AI/mobile chip pipeline.

• Micron (MU) — Reports after the bell today. Shares are up 60%+ YTD — the only top-10 U.S. tech stock in the green for 2026. Analysts expect 148% revenue growth on AI memory demand. Wedbush and TD Cowen both raised targets to $500.

• Lululemon (LULU) — Up roughly 4% after beating Q4 estimates last night (EPS $5.01, revenue $3.64B), though full-year guidance was soft as the company works to restore premium pricing after heavy 2025 discounting.

• Boeing (BA) — Under pressure after warning that 737 MAX wiring defects and supplier issues will weigh on Q1 deliveries.

Today’s Key Events

• 8:30 AM — February PPI (released). Headline PPI surged 0.7% MoM (consensus: 0.3%), with the year-over-year rate hitting 3.4% — the highest since February 2025. Raymond James economists noted this “underscores the risks for monetary policy” and tilts the Fed toward a hawkish tone today.

• 2:00 PM — FOMC Rate Decision & Summary of Economic Projections. The Fed is 99% certain to hold at 3.50–3.75%. The real event is the updated dot plot and Powell’s 2:30 PM press conference. Deutsche Bank expects the committee to raise 2026 inflation projections (headline PCE to 2.7%, core to 2.6%) while keeping rate projections largely unchanged. But with PPI running hot before the March oil shock even hits the data, the risk tilts toward a more hawkish tone than markets expect. Futures now price just one cut this year, in September at the earliest.

• After close — Micron (MU) earnings. The most anticipated semiconductor report of the week. Also reporting: General Mills (GIS), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), and Five Below (FIVE).

The Takeaway

This morning’s PPI surprise changes the texture of Fed Day. The market expected a dovish hold — Powell acknowledging the oil shock as transitory while keeping the door open to cuts. The 0.7% PPI print complicates that by showing inflation pressures were building before crude spiked past $100. Powell now has to thread a needle: acknowledge growth risks from oil without sounding complacent on inflation. A hawkish lean could pressure equities into the close; a measured “data dependent” tone could sustain the recovery. Micron after hours adds a second catalyst. Buckle up.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The author is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial planner. All analysis represents the author’s interpretation of publicly available data and may contain errors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Markets involve substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.