SAAM Daily Morning Brief

Market Snapshot

Futures are under pressure again as the S&P 500 heads toward a fourth consecutive weekly loss. Oil remains elevated despite reports that U.S. forces are beginning an effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has offered a cautious opening to “neutral” vessels, but markets aren’t buying it. Adding complexity: today is triple-witching day, when stock index futures, index options, and equity options all expire — typically amplifying intraday volatility.

• S&P 500 Futures: ~6,580, down 0.4%

• Nasdaq 100 Futures: ~21,900, down 0.6%

• Dow Jones Futures: ~45,800, down 0.3%

• VIX: ~25, elevated — S&P closed below its 200-day moving average yesterday for the first time since May 2025

• 10Y Treasury Yield: ~4.33%, rising as rate-cut odds evaporate

• DXY (Dollar Index): ~100, testing the key psychological level

• WTI Crude Oil: ~$97, roughly flat. Brent trading near $109, off yesterday’s $112 highs but still up ~9% for the week. Iraq declared force majeure at all foreign-operated oilfields and drones struck two refineries in Kuwait overnight.

• Gold: ~$4,650, down sharply — on track for its worst weekly decline since 1983, falling over 10% as rising yields and a surging dollar crush the traditional haven trade

Thursday’s Close: The S&P 500 fell 0.32% to 6,603, the Nasdaq shed 0.53% to 22,035, and the Dow slipped 0.22% to 46,021 — all fresh 2026 lows for the fourth time this week. Stocks recovered from steeper intraday losses after Netanyahu’s comments suggested framing conditions for an eventual ceasefire. (CNBC: Live Updates)

What’s Moving Pre-Market

• FedEx (FDX) — Surging 7%+ after a fiscal Q3 earnings beat and raised FY2026 guidance. BofA reiterated a buy rating and raised its target to $440, citing the strongest U.S. market share gains in 20 years. A rare bright spot showing that logistics demand remains resilient despite the energy shock.

• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) — Plunging over 20% pre-market after the company disclosed delayed financial filings and auditor concerns. The controversy-ridden AI server assembler is now down significantly from its highs.

• Micron (MU) — Continued selling pressure, down roughly 4–5% after Wednesday’s “sell the news” reaction despite a massive EPS beat ($12.20 vs. $8.60). Memory peers Western Digital (WDC) and Seagate (STX) are falling in sympathy.

• Constellation Energy (CEG) — Down sharply (~11% Thursday) as the nuclear/power names give back gains amid the broader risk-off rotation.

• Energy stocks — Holding up as the sole sector with meaningful YTD gains (XLE still up 25%+). Iraq’s force majeure and Kuwait refinery strikes are keeping crude bid.

Today’s Key Events

• Triple-Witching Expiration. Massive options and futures expiration day. Expect amplified volume and intraday swings, particularly into the close.

• No major scheduled economic data. The tape will be driven by oil headlines, war developments, and positioning ahead of the weekend.

• Looking Ahead to Next Week: Final Q4 GDP revision (Thursday) and the February PCE Price Index (Friday) — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Given Powell’s hawkish tone Wednesday, PCE will be closely watched for any confirmation of the stagflation narrative.

The Takeaway

This has been one of the most consequential weeks since the conflict began. The Fed raised inflation projections. PPI came in hot. Micron delivered a blowout that couldn’t overcome macro headwinds. Gold is having its worst week in 40+ years. The S&P has closed at a new 2026 low four times in five sessions, and the Russell 2000 entered correction territory. The market is genuinely repricing from “soft landing with rate cuts” to “stagflation risk with the Fed on hold.” Until oil normalizes and the Strait reopens, that repricing likely has further to run. Stay defensive heading into the weekend.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The author is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial planner. All analysis represents the author’s interpretation of publicly available data and may contain errors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Markets involve substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.