SAAM Daily Morning Brief — April 8, 2026

The overnight tape has flipped hard into risk-on after President Trump announced a two-week U.S.–Iran ceasefire contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Futures are up across the board, crude is cratering, and global equities are staging their biggest single-session relief rally in over a year. The question today is not whether the pain trade was short crude and long equities — it was — but whether this is a durable turn or a geopolitical sugar high.

1. Market Snapshot

S&P 500 Futures: ~6,844, +2.8% — Risk-on
Nasdaq 100 Futures: ~25,221, +3.5% — Risk-on
Dow Jones Futures: ~48,119, +2.8% — Risk-on
Russell 2000 Futures: ~2,662, +4.0% — Risk-on (small-caps leading)
VIX (the CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street’s “fear gauge”): elevated into yesterday’s close near 27; expected to compress sharply on the open
10Y Treasury Yield: ~4.36%, modestly higher as the safety bid unwinds
WTI Crude: ~$96.32, down roughly 15% from yesterday’s ~$112.95
Brent Crude: ~$94.22, down roughly 14% from yesterday’s ~$109.27
Gold: at a three-week high as the U.S. dollar weakens
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of major currencies): softer around the 100 handle as safe-haven demand fades

Prior session (Tuesday, April 7) was a grinding standoff. The S&P 500 closed at 6,616.85 (+0.08%), the Nasdaq Composite at 22,017.85 (+0.10%), and the Dow at 46,584.46 (−0.18%) as hopes for a last-minute Iran deal faded into the close. Energy names ran hard into the bell on crude’s spike; defensives outperformed as investors hedged headline risk.

Global markets are driving the tone this morning. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is up about 4%, with Germany’s DAX +4.8%, France’s CAC 40 +4.5%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 +2.8% — travel and autos are leading on cheaper fuel. In Asia, South Korea’s Kospi jumped +5%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 +4%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng +4%. The common thread: the Strait of Hormuz reopening narrative is a direct positive for manufacturers, airlines, and oil importers.

2. What’s Moving Pre-Market

DAL (Delta Air Lines) — sharply higher after beating Q1 estimates, with sales growth of ~5.4% and earnings growth of ~34.3%. Lower jet fuel is a double tailwind here; airlines broadly (UAL, AAL, LUV) are bid in sympathy.
XOM, CVX, OXY — Energy majors are the notable laggards. Crude’s 15% slide is pressuring the group; expect XLE (the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF) to open well off yesterday’s highs.
BA (Boeing) — higher on cheaper fuel and improved travel-demand assumptions flowing through to airline customers.
LMT, RTX, NOC — Defense primes softer as the war premium unwinds. Watch for relative-strength divergence if the ceasefire holds.
NVDA, AAPL, MSFT — Megacap tech bid aggressively in sympathy with Nasdaq futures; small-caps and cyclicals are where the real rotation is happening.

3. Today’s Key Events

2:00 PM ET — FOMC Minutes (from the March meeting). The Federal Open Market Committee minutes give a detailed account of how Fed officials debated policy at their last meeting. Today’s release matters because markets want to know how much weight policymakers are putting on oil-driven inflation risk versus growth concerns. A hawkish tone could cap this rally; a dovish lean would add fuel to it.
After the close — Applied Digital (APLD) earnings. Options markets are pricing roughly a 12.5% move; relevant for the AI infrastructure theme but not S&P 500-weighted.
Throughout the session — Iran headline risk. The ceasefire is a two-week window, not a treaty. Any signal that the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopening could reverse this tape quickly.

4. The Takeaway

The weight of evidence this morning favors a broad relief rally, with the strongest tailwinds in cyclicals, small-caps, airlines, and rate-sensitive growth names — and the clearest headwind in Energy. The setup tilts bullish for XLK (Technology), XLY (Consumer Discretionary), and IWM (the Russell 2000 ETF), and bearish near-term for XLE. Two things to watch through the session: whether WTI holds above $95 (a failure there would deepen the Energy bleed), and the FOMC minutes at 2:00 PM ET for any language that complicates the Fed’s disinflation path now that the oil shock is unwinding. Conviction is moderate — headline tapes can reverse as fast as they start, and the ceasefire has a clock on it.

5. Additional Reading

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The author is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial planner. All analysis represents the author’s interpretation of publicly available data and may contain errors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Markets involve substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.