SAAM Daily Morning Brief

Market Snapshot

Futures are slightly lower this morning as markets consolidate after Monday’s dramatic reversal. After plunging nearly 900 points at its low, the Dow clawed back to close up 239 points after President Trump told CBS News the Iran war is “very complete, pretty much.” That comment triggered an immediate collapse in oil and a fierce equity rally into the close.

• S&P 500 Futures: ~6,770, down 0.4% — consolidating

• Nasdaq 100 Futures: ~22,600, down 0.3% — consolidating

• Dow Jones Futures: ~47,620, down 0.4% — consolidating

• VIX: ~25.4 (Mon close), down 14% Monday — easing but still elevated

• 10Y Treasury Yield: ~4.10%, down 5 bps Monday — retreating

• DXY (Dollar Index): ~99.3, flat — pausing

• WTI Crude Oil: ~$89, down 6% overnight — sharp retreat from Monday’s $119 peak

• Gold: ~$5,131, up 0.9% Friday — holding

Monday’s Close: The S&P 500 gained 0.83% to 6,796, the Nasdaq surged 1.38% to 22,696, and the Dow added 0.50% to 47,741. The session swung from a 1.5% loss at the open — when WTI crude briefly touched $119 — to a broad-based rally after Trump’s remarks sent crude tumbling below $86 by the close. Semiconductors led the recovery, with Broadcom (AVGO) and AMD each surging over 4.6%. Nvidia (NVDA) rose 2.7% after a Morgan Stanley upgrade.

Global Context: Oil is extending its retreat this morning. WTI futures are trading near $89 (-6%), while Brent is around $93 (-6.4%), after Trump reinforced his comments Monday evening, saying the U.S. is focused on keeping energy flowing. G7 energy ministers are meeting virtually this morning to discuss a potential coordinated release of strategic oil reserves. Asian markets were mixed; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%.

What’s Moving Pre-Market

Nvidia (NVDA) — Continues to lead tech sentiment ahead of its GTC conference (keynote March 16). CEO Jensen Huang recently unveiled the “Vera Rubin” AI platform and announced a $100 billion data center partnership with OpenAI.

Cruise lines (CCL, RCL, NCLH) — Poised to recover after Monday’s late rally, though Carnival and Norwegian are each still down over 20% in March on fuel cost fears.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) — Rose 1% after hours Monday after beating Q1 EPS estimates ($0.65 vs. $0.59 consensus), though revenue of $9.30B came in slightly below expectations.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) — Jumped 5%+ after hours after its IgA nephropathy drug met primary endpoints in a late-stage trial.

Today’s Key Events

• Morning — G7 Energy Ministers Meeting. Potential coordinated release of strategic oil reserves — could add further downward pressure on crude.

• 10:00 AM — JOLTS Job Openings (Jan). Key read on labor demand after Friday’s -92K payrolls shock.

• After close — Oracle (ORCL) earnings. Enterprise software bellwether; AI-related cloud demand in focus.

Looking Ahead: Wednesday’s February CPI is the week’s biggest scheduled data point. This print will not fully capture the recent oil spike, which largely occurred in March — but any upside surprise would reinforce the stagflation narrative and further box in the Fed ahead of its March 18 meeting.

The Takeaway

Monday’s wild reversal showed just how binary this market has become — oil goes up, stocks go down; oil goes down, stocks rip higher. Trump’s comments triggered the sharpest single-session oil reversal in years, but the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and Iran has not confirmed any ceasefire. The weight of evidence tilts cautiously positive — G7 coordination on reserves and de-escalation rhetoric are genuine catalysts — but until tanker traffic resumes and oil normalizes durably below $80, the stagflation scare is not fully unwound. Stay nimble.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The author is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial planner. All analysis represents the author’s interpretation of publicly available data and may contain errors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Markets involve substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.