SAAM Daily Morning Brief

Market Snapshot

Futures are slightly lower this morning as oil prices resume their climb, partially unwinding Monday’s relief rally. Brent crude is back above $100 after Trump cast doubt on the pace of a Hormuz escort coalition, saying some countries are “less than enthusiastic.” The FOMC begins its two-day meeting today, with a decision and press conference tomorrow afternoon.

• S&P 500 Futures: ~6,685, down 0.2%

• Nasdaq 100 Futures: ~22,300, down 0.3%

• Dow Jones Futures: ~46,850, down 0.2%

• VIX: ~24.5 (Mon close), down sharply from last week’s 27+ levels but still well above pre-conflict norms

• 10Y Treasury Yield: ~4.29%, roughly flat — stuck between inflation fears and growth concerns

• DXY (Dollar Index): ~99.3, flat

• WTI Crude Oil: ~$96, up roughly 4% this morning after settling at $93.50 Monday (-5.3%). The overnight bounce followed Trump’s comments dampening hopes for a quick Hormuz reopening.

• Gold: ~$5,050, flat — range-bound as dueling risk-on/risk-off signals cancel each other out

Monday’s Close: A strong session across the board. The S&P 500 rose 1.01% to 6,699, the Nasdaq gained 1.22% to 22,374, and the Dow added 388 points (+0.83%) to 46,946. All eleven GICS sectors closed higher for the first time in weeks, led by Information Technology. WTI crude fell 5.3% as Trump urged multiple nations to join a Hormuz escort coalition and reports indicated select tankers had successfully navigated the Strait over the weekend. The rally was broad-based — a welcome sign after three consecutive losing weeks. (CNBC: Stock Market Live Updates)

What’s Moving Pre-Market

• Nvidia (NVDA) — The dominant story. CEO Jensen Huang’s GTC keynote Monday was a blockbuster — he projected $1 trillion in orders for Blackwell and Vera Rubin systems through 2027, unveiled the Vera Rubin Space-1 Module for orbital data centers, and signaled that the AI inference buildout is just beginning. Shares rose 1.6% Monday and are flat pre-market as GTC continues through Thursday. (CNBC: GTC Coverage)

• Meta (META) — Up 2.3% Monday on a report (which the company called “speculative”) that it plans to lay off 20%+ of its workforce to offset AI capex. Also signed a $27B AI infrastructure deal with Nebius.

• Salesforce (CRM) — Announced its largest-ever buyback at $25B. CEO Benioff said the company is “aggressively repurchasing shares because we are so confident in the future of Salesforce.”

• Micron (MU) — Rose 4% Monday and remains in focus ahead of Wednesday earnings. Multiple analysts have raised price targets (Wedbush to $500, TD Cowen to $500), citing strong memory pricing and HBM demand. Also announced a new Taiwan manufacturing site.

• Oil-sensitive names — Airlines and cruise lines are vulnerable again this morning as crude reverses higher. Carnival (CCL), Norwegian (NCLH), and Royal Caribbean (RCL) remain down 15–20%+ month-to-date.

Today’s Key Events

• FOMC Meeting Begins (Day 1 of 2). Decision and press conference tomorrow at 2:00 PM ET. No rate change is expected — markets price 97%+ probability of a hold at 3.50–3.75%. The focus will be on Chair Powell’s language around the oil shock, stagflation risk, and whether the committee’s dot plot still reflects any 2026 cuts. Traders currently see just one cut this year, in December.

• Earnings after the bell: Lululemon (LULU), DocuSign (DOCU), and Oklo (OKLO). Lululemon is down 22% over the past three months and will be watched for consumer spending signals amid rising fuel costs.

The Takeaway

Monday delivered the first all-sectors-green session in weeks, fueled by falling oil and GTC-driven tech optimism. But this morning’s crude bounce is a reminder the oil-equity seesaw hasn’t been retired — just paused. The market’s next directional move likely comes from Powell tomorrow. If he signals the oil shock is transitory and the committee remains open to easing, that could extend the relief trade. If he leans hawkish, the stagflation narrative reasserts itself. Watch oil today, position for Wednesday.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The author is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial planner. All analysis represents the author’s interpretation of publicly available data and may contain errors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Markets involve substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.