SAAM Daily Morning Brief

Market Snapshot

Futures are rallying sharply on the most concrete de-escalation signal since the Iran conflict began. The White House reportedly sent Tehran a 15-point peace proposal, and Trump said Iran has offered a “gesture of goodwill” on Strait of Hormuz energy flows. Brent has dropped 5% below $100. Pakistan has offered to host direct talks.

• S&P 500 Futures: ~6,620, up 0.8%

• Nasdaq 100 Futures: up 1.1% — growth/tech leading the bid

• Dow Jones Futures: ~46,500, up 0.9%

• VIX: Down roughly 4% pre-market, pulling back from recent highs near 30

• 10Y Treasury Yield: ~4.39%, down 3 bps as bond markets price modestly lower inflation risk

• DXY (Dollar Index): ~99.5, little changed

• WTI Crude Oil: ~$88, down roughly 5% as the peace proposal lifts hopes for Hormuz reopening. Brent has fallen below $100 for the first time since Monday’s brief plunge.

• Gold: Edging higher near $4,550, attempting to stabilize after last week’s historic 10% rout

Tuesday’s Close: A choppy, indecisive session. The Dow slipped 0.18%, the S&P 500 fell 0.38% to 6,556, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.84% to 21,762. Conflicting Middle East headlines dominated — Iran denied direct talks even as Pakistan offered to mediate. Brent crude rose 4.6% to $104.49. The 2-year Treasury yield spiked 11 bps to 3.94% after a weak auction. Energy was the only positive S&P 500 sector for the session, continuing its month-to-date lead of +9%. Software stocks sold off hard again, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) down 3% and now off 23% year-to-date. Retail investors turned net sellers for the first time since 2023. (CNBC: Stock Market Live Updates)

What’s Moving Pre-Market

• Arm Holdings (ARM) — Surging over 12% on news it will begin designing and selling its own branded AI chips, a strategic shift beyond its traditional licensing model. This is a major competitive development for the semiconductor industry.

• Robinhood (HOOD) — Up ~4% after announcing a $1.5 billion share buyback program.

• Intel (INTC) — Up ~3.7% as investors rotate back into semiconductor names on the de-escalation bid.

• Palantir (PLTR) — Up ~2.2%, continuing its defense-spending-driven outperformance.

• Apollo (APO) — Continued weakness after Tuesday’s 3%+ drop on the private credit redemption disclosure. Blackstone (BX) and KKR also under pressure. Apollo is down ~24% YTD.

• Software sector — IGV has shed 23% in 2026 on AI disruption fears. Salesforce (-5% Tue), ServiceNow (-4%), and Oracle (-4.7%) remain under heavy pressure.

Today’s Key Events

• 8:30 AM — Export and Import Prices (Feb). Trade price data that could show early effects of tariffs and energy cost pass-through.

• 10:30 AM — EIA Crude Oil Inventories. The weekly supply read takes on elevated importance with crude swinging $20+ per barrel in either direction on headlines.

• Geopolitical watch — 15-point peace proposal. This is the dominant variable. Any official Iranian response — positive or negative — will move oil and equities immediately. Trump also ordered ~2,000 additional troops to the region, signaling the military track hasn’t been abandoned.

Looking Ahead: Thursday brings the final Q4 GDP revision. Friday delivers the February PCE Price Index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and the week’s most important scheduled data release.

The Takeaway

Today’s setup is the most constructive since the conflict began, but markets have been burned by false signals before. The 15-point proposal is the first formal diplomatic framework to emerge, and oil is responding — Brent below $100 is meaningful. If Iran engages, this could be the inflection point. If the proposal is rejected, oil likely reclaims $105+ and equities give back this morning’s gains. Private credit stress at Apollo and the software sector’s 23% YTD drawdown are reminders that risks extend beyond oil. PCE on Friday will test whether inflation is deteriorating fast enough to force the Fed’s hand. One step at a time.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The author is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial planner. All analysis represents the author’s interpretation of publicly available data and may contain errors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Markets involve substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.