SAAM DAILY MORNING BRIEF

Thursday, April 2, 2026 Published pre-market | Data as of approximately 8:30 AM ET

MARKET SNAPSHOT

Futures are sharply lower this morning after President Trump’s prime-time national address on the Iran war Wednesday night dashed hopes for a swift resolution and sent oil surging. Markets had rallied Wednesday on ceasefire speculation — that optimism is being rapidly unwound.

S&P 500 Futures — ~6,507 | -1.67% | Risk-off
Nasdaq 100 Futures — ~23,686 | -2.10% | Tech under pressure
Dow Jones Futures — ~46,107 | -1.49% | Broad selling
Russell 2000 Futures — ~2,470 | -2.24% | Small caps hit hardest
VIX — ~27.73 | +13% | Fear gauge rising
10Y Treasury Yield — 4.32% | Slight dip | Flight to bonds
WTI Crude — ~$108 | +8-9% | War premium surging
Brent Crude — ~$109 | +7-8% | Near multi-year highs
Gold — ~$4,630 | -3.8% | Liquidation pressure
Bitcoin — ~$66,121 | -3.6% | Risk-off selling

Wednesday’s Close: Wednesday had been a notably positive session. The S&P 500 rose 0.72% to 6,575, the Nasdaq gained 1.16%, and the Dow added 224 points — all driven by Trump’s morning claim that Iran had requested a ceasefire. That rally is being given back this morning after his evening address told a different story.

Global Context: Asian markets sold off sharply overnight. South Korea’s Kospi fell 4.5%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 1.4%, and Australia’s ASX 200 slipped 0.5%. European markets are broadly in the red. Deutsche Bank analysts wrote that market sentiment “deteriorated overnight” after the speech provided no clarity on timelines or conditions for ending hostilities.

WHAT’S MOVING PRE-MARKET

Nike (NKE) — Down ~10-15%, on track for its worst single-session decline in roughly a year. NKE beat Q3 earnings (35 cents per share vs. 28 cents expected) and revenue ($11.28B vs. $11.24B expected), but the guidance overshadowed everything: the company warned sales will decline for the rest of the calendar year, including a projected 20% drop in its critical China market this quarter. JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs all downgraded the stock Wednesday. NKE is now down nearly 30% in 2026.
Energy Stocks (XOM, CVX, COP, EOG) — Broadly higher, tracking the 8-9% surge in WTI crude. Energy (XLE) remains the one GICS sector with a clear fundamental tailwind in this environment. The sector is up 35%+ year-to-date.
Eli Lilly (LLY) — Extending Wednesday’s 5% gain after the FDA approved Foundayo, its GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1, a class of weight-loss and diabetes drug) pill. The oral approval is significant — it removes the injection barrier that has limited GLP-1 adoption among certain patient populations and opens a meaningful new market segment.
SpaceX-Adjacent Plays — EchoStar (SATS) and related names remain elevated after Bloomberg confirmed Wednesday that SpaceX has confidentially filed for an IPO, reportedly targeting a June listing. EchoStar holds a ~3% stake in SpaceX. The SpaceX/xAI combined entity was last valued at $1.25 trillion.
Memory/Semiconductor Names (SNDK, WDC, LRCX) — Mixed after a strong Wednesday rebound. The group remains down sharply from pre-conflict levels as geopolitical risk keeps valuation multiples compressed.

TODAY’S KEY EVENTS

8:30 AM ET — Initial Jobless Claims Weekly new unemployment claims. The prior reading was in line with expectations; any significant spike would add to recession concerns heading into tomorrow’s payrolls report. Consensus looks for claims to hold near recent levels.

Tomorrow, Friday April 3 — March Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET) Markets are closed for Good Friday. The data drops, but equities cannot respond until Monday, April 6.

This is the most consequential scheduled data point of the week — and the timing creates an unusual risk setup. After February’s shock print of -92,000 jobs (the worst monthly loss in four months), consensus now expects the economy added approximately +57,000 jobs in March. The key swing factor is healthcare: the Kaiser Permanente strike that removed roughly 30,000 workers from February payrolls has since been resolved, and those jobs should mechanically return. Government payrolls remain a wildcard given ongoing federal workforce reductions.

A second consecutive negative print would materially raise recession odds. A rebound toward +57,000 would be modest relief but still far below the pre-war monthly average of ~180,000. Because markets are closed Friday, any surprise — in either direction — will be fully priced into Monday’s open, when April 6 also arrives as Trump’s self-imposed deadline for potential strikes on Iranian power infrastructure.

THE TAKEAWAY

Wednesday night’s address was the market event of the week — and not in the way bulls were hoping. Rather than offering an off-ramp, Trump pledged to hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks, while simultaneously hinting the war won’t last long. Markets read the combination as escalation without clarity, which is the worst possible outcome for risk assets. Oil re-accelerated. Bonds caught a bid. Equities are reversing Wednesday’s ceasefire-hope rally almost entirely.

The setup heading into the weekend is uncomfortable: an oil shock being re-energized, a jobs report landing tomorrow in a closed market, and April 6 as the next hard deadline — all hitting simultaneously. Nike’s earnings are a useful lens on where the consumer stands amid this inflation shock: beat on the quarter, but guided down sharply. That’s the corporate earnings picture in miniature for 2026. Watch crude closely throughout the session; a sustained hold above $108 on WTI suggests the oil-equity correlation is tightening further.

Additional Reading:

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The author is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial planner. All analysis represents the author’s interpretation of publicly available data and may contain errors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Markets involve substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.