SAAM DAILY MORNING BRIEF

Tuesday, March 31, 2026 Published pre-market | Data as of approximately 7:30 AM ET

MARKET SNAPSHOT

Futures are broadly higher this morning on a potentially significant diplomatic signal: the Wall Street Journal reported overnight that President Trump told aides he is willing to end military hostilities in Iran even without a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — a meaningful walk-back from his repeated threats to reopen the waterway by force. A follow-up Truth Social post from Trump reinforced the tone, declaring the hard part is “done.” Tech, which has absorbed the most damage since the conflict began, is leading the bounce. The 10-year Treasury yield has retreated notably, offering relief to rate-sensitive sectors. A note of caution: Iran struck a Kuwaiti oil tanker in Dubai waters early this morning, a reminder that de-escalation headlines and on-the-ground reality remain out of sync.

Today is also the final trading day of Q1 2026 — the worst quarter for U.S. equities in several years. Quarter-end rebalancing flows will be active at the close.

S&P 500 Futures — ~6,443 | +0.85% | Risk-on relief bid
Nasdaq 100 Futures — ~23,321 | +0.78% | Tech-led bounce
Dow Jones Futures — ~45,874 | +0.90% | Broad participation
Russell 2000 Futures — ~2,460 | +1.30% | Small-caps outperforming
VIX — 28.86 | -5.7% | Fear easing; still elevated above 25
10Y Treasury Yield — 4.34% | -10 bps overnight | Meaningful relief
WTI Crude — ~$104 | Elevated | Tanker strike limits pullback
Brent Crude — ~$115 | Elevated | Conflict premium persists
Gold — ~$4,585 | +0.6% | Safe-haven demand firm

Monday’s Close: A mixed and choppy session. The S&P 500 slipped 0.39% to 6,344. The Nasdaq fell 0.78% to ~22,953 as WTI crude crossed $100 for the first time since 2022, dampening the morning’s optimism. The Dow managed a fractional gain of +0.11% to ~45,216. WTI closing above $100 was a psychological threshold — it coincided with national average gas prices hitting $4.02 per gallon, the highest level since August 2022 per AAA data, up more than $1 in a single month.

WHAT’S MOVING PRE-MARKET

McCormick (MKC) — Up ~3% after Unilever confirmed it is in discussions to merge its Foods business with McCormick in a deal that would involve roughly $15.7 billion in upfront cash, with McCormick shareholders retaining 35% of the combined company. A major strategic transaction for a Consumer Staples name in an otherwise defensive-rotation environment.
Diageo (DEO) — Up ~3% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the spirits giant to Buy from Hold, arguing that structural headwinds in global alcohol consumption are already fully reflected in the stock’s depressed valuation.
Amphenol (APH) — Up ~2% after Jefferies upgraded the maker of connectors, sensors, and antennas to Buy from Hold, a vote of confidence in the industrial technology name amid the broader selloff.
Nvidia (NVDA) / Microsoft (MSFT) — Up 0.8% and 1.5%, respectively, leading a broad tech recovery in the premarket as the XLK ETF (Information Technology sector) trades ~0.8% higher. Both names have been under heavy selling pressure since the conflict began.

TODAY’S KEY EVENTS

10:00 AM ET — Conference Board Consumer Confidence, March. This is the more employment-focused of the two major consumer sentiment surveys (the other being University of Michigan’s, which already came in at a multi-year low of 53.3 in its final March reading). A sharp drop here would corroborate the Michigan data and add to recession-probability models. Gas prices crossing $4 are likely already influencing survey responses collected through mid-March.

10:00 AM ET — JOLTS Job Openings, February. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) measures the total number of unfilled positions across the U.S. economy — a key gauge of labor demand. January’s reading showed 6.9 million openings. A meaningful decline in February would signal that hiring demand was softening even before the oil shock hit full stride in March. This sets up the table for ADP on Wednesday and the March Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.

After the Close — Nike (NKE) Q3 FY2026 Earnings. Consensus expects EPS of ~$0.29. As the world’s largest athletic apparel company with significant China revenue exposure and global logistics costs, Nike’s forward guidance will be read as a proxy for consumer discretionary health under tariff and energy-cost pressure. Also reporting after the close: PVH Corp. (PVH) and RH (RH), providing additional Consumer Discretionary data points.

Fed Speakers. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Fed Governors Michael Barr and Michelle Bowman, and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid are all scheduled to speak today. The market will parse any comments on the inflation-versus-labor-market tension carefully, particularly in light of rate hike odds sitting above 50% for the first time this cycle.

THE TAKEAWAY

The WSJ report on Trump’s Hormuz flexibility is the most constructive geopolitical signal in five weeks, and futures are pricing it accordingly. The 10-year yield pulling back to 4.34% is equally meaningful — that’s the market beginning to unwind its rate-hike premium, even if tentatively. If that move holds through the session, it would provide direct valuation relief to the tech and growth names that have been most punished.

That said, the caution flags remain in plain sight: a tanker strike happened this morning, Brent is still at $115, gas is at $4 a gallon, and the Fed speakers today could quickly re-tighten financial conditions with hawkish commentary. Consumer Confidence and JOLTS will add to or subtract from the soft-landing narrative by mid-morning. Nike’s guidance after the close will be the day’s closing argument on the consumer. This is a session where the data genuinely has the power to either confirm a Q2 recovery narrative or extend Q1’s damage into the new quarter.

Additional Reading:

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The author is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial planner. All analysis represents the author’s interpretation of publicly available data and may contain errors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Markets involve substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.