SAAM Daily Morning Brief

Market Snapshot

Futures are pointing sharply lower to start the week as the U.S.-Iran conflict enters its tenth day with no resolution in sight. The combination of surging oil prices and Friday’s shockingly weak jobs report has brought the word “stagflation” — a toxic mix of stalling economic growth and rising inflation — squarely back into the market’s vocabulary.

Indicator Level Change Signal

S&P 500 Futures. ~6,629 -1.7% Risk-off

Nasdaq 100 Futures ~22,000 -2.0% Risk-off

Dow Jones Futures ~46,646 -1.8% Risk-off

VIX 29.49 (Fri close). +24.2%Fri Elevated fear

10Y Treasury Yield ~4.25% +30 bps/2 wks Inflation pricing

DXY (Dollar Index) ~99.5 +0.5% Fri Haven bid

WTI Crude Oil ~$107 +18% overnight Surging

Gold ~$5,131 +0.9% Fri Haven bid

Friday’s Close: The Dow fell 453 points (-0.95%) to 47,502, the S&P 500 dropped 1.33% to 6,740, and the Nasdaq sank 1.59% to 22,388. All three major indexes are now negative for 2026. The weekly damage was severe — WTI crude posted a 35% weekly gain, the largest since oil futures trading began in 1983.

Global Context: Oil prices have exploded over the weekend after Kuwait confirmed production cuts and Iraqi output plunged roughly 70% as storage nears capacity. The Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of global oil flows — remains effectively closed to commercial shipping. European and Asian markets are trading sharply lower.

What’s Moving Pre-Market

• Energy stocks are broadly higher as WTI blasts past $100. The SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE) is up over 25% year-to-date, more than doubling any other S&P 500 sector.

• Microsoft (MSFT) is showing relative resilience, buoyed by a reported backlog jump to $625 billion — a sign of durable cloud and AI demand.

• Apple (AAPL) is down roughly 2.5% pre-market on margin concerns as memory component prices rise.

• Nvidia (NVDA) remains under pressure ahead of its GTC conference (March 16), caught in the tech downdraft despite solid AI fundamentals.

• Royal Caribbean (RCL) and travel names continue to slide on surging fuel costs, with RCL down over 10% last week.

Friday’s Jobs Report: Worse Than Expected

The February nonfarm payrolls report was a genuine shock. The U.S. economy shed 92,000 jobs, far below consensus expectations for a gain of roughly 55,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%. Healthcare fell 28,000 (largely the Kaiser Permanente strike), while manufacturing (-12,000) and transportation (-11,000) also declined. Crucially, December payrolls were revised to -17,000 — meaning the economy lost jobs in three of the last four months. (BLS: Employment Situation | CNBC: Jobs Report)

This Week’s Key Events

DateEventWhy It MattersTue 3/10JOLTS Job Openings (Jan)Further read on labor demandWed 3/11CPI (February)Inflation gauge — won’t yet capture full oil spikeThu 3/12Initial Jobless ClaimsWeekly labor pulseFri 3/13Core PCE Price Index (Feb)The Fed’s preferred inflation measureTue 3/18FOMC Rate DecisionMarkets price 97%+ chance of a hold at 3.50–3.75%

Earnings to watch: Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) reports after Monday’s close. Oracle (ORCL), Adobe (ADBE), and Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) are due later in the week.

The Takeaway

The market enters the week caught in the worst kind of macro crosscurrent: a deteriorating labor market that would normally argue for rate cuts, colliding with an energy-driven inflation shock that makes easing nearly impossible. With CPI on Wednesday and the FOMC next week, the Fed is boxed in. The path forward hinges on oil prices, which depend on how quickly the Iran conflict resolves. Until there is clarity, expect elevated volatility and a defensive tone.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The author is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial planner. All analysis represents the author’s interpretation of publicly available data and may contain errors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Markets involve substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.