1.
S&P 500 (SPX): 6,824.66, +0.62%
Nasdaq Composite: 22,822.42, +0.83%
Dow Jones (DJIA): 48,150.80, +275.9 pts, +0.58%
Russell 2000 (RUT): 2,636.31, +0.60%
VIX (CBOE Volatility Index, the “fear gauge” tracking expected S&P 500 volatility): ~19.5, lower — fear easing
10-Year Treasury Yield: ~4.29%, flat
WTI Crude: below $94/bbl, sharply lower on ceasefire relief
Brent Crude: lower in sympathy
Gold: ~$4,796/oz, modestly higher
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index, USD vs. six major currencies): ~98.55, softer
The tape was decisively risk-on. SPX extended its winning streak to a seventh session — the longest run since October — as the U.S.–Iran ceasefire held and crude collapsed. Falling oil, softer yields, and a weaker dollar aligned cleanly.
Industrials (XLI): +3.8% — cyclical leadership as recession fears recede
Materials (XLB): +3.3% — reflation bid on lower oil and weaker dollar
Information Technology (XLK): +3.1% — mega-cap rally led by Amazon
Financials (XLF): higher — risk-on flows
Consumer Discretionary (XLY): higher — travel and retail bid
Communication Services (XLC): higher — broad participation
Consumer Staples (XLP): modestly higher
Utilities (XLU) / Real Estate (XLRE): higher — lower yields help rate-sensitive names
Health Care (XLV): marginally higher — session laggard
Energy (XLE): –3.5% — oil collapse on ceasefire relief
Clean cyclical leadership with a reflation flavor; Energy’s pain was the market’s fuel.
Gainers
AMZN (Amazon) +5.6% to $233.65 — CEO Andy Jassy’s shareholder letter disclosed a $15B AI run rate at AWS and defended ~$200B of 2026 capex.
BF.B (Brown-Forman) +11.8% — reports of a potential takeover bid for the Jack Daniel’s maker.
DAL (Delta) higher — Q1 EPS $0.64 beat; Q2 guide calls for roughly $1B in profit.
Losers
TPL (Texas Pacific Land) –14.3% — the AI-adjacent land/royalty name unwound as crude cratered.
NET (Cloudflare) –13.9% — edge-compute names pressured on rotation out of high-multiple software.
Software names (Salesforce, ServiceNow) lagged despite Tech’s sector-level gain.
No major S&P 500 names reported after today’s close. Delta (DAL) was the marquee release and was digested during regular hours.
Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) — forecast 210K vs. prior 202K. Absorbed without reaction; claims remain consistent with a labor market softening but not breaking.
Wholesale Inventories (10:00 AM ET) — forecast –0.5% vs. prior +0.2%. A quiet, non-event print.
Producer Price Index (PPI) — 8:30 AM ET: wholesale inflation gauge that often previews CPI. A soft print reinforces disinflation.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim) — 10:00 AM ET: watch the inflation-expectations component.
Big-bank Q1 earnings begin next week; positioning should firm into tomorrow’s close.
SPX is pressing February’s highs — continuation favored while crude stays subdued and yields contained, but the tape is stretched near-term.
Today was a textbook relief rally: lower oil, softer yields, weaker dollar, cyclicals leading. The weight of evidence tilts constructive, but with SPX on a seven-session streak and VIX near 19, the risk/reward for chasing is deteriorating. Watch PPI at 8:30 ET and whether WTI holds below $95 — Energy’s pain has been the market’s fuel.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The author is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial planner. All analysis represents the author’s interpretation of publicly available data and may contain errors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Markets involve substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
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