Closing Snapshot S&P 500 (SPX): 6,886.24, +1.0% Nasdaq Composite: 23,183.74, +1.2% Dow Jones (DJIA): 48,218.25, +0.6% Russell 2000 (RUT): higher with large-cap risk VIX (the market’s “fear gauge”): eased as Iran tensions cooled 10Y Treasury Yield: modestly higher on returning risk appetite WTI Crude: ~$92.34, -7% on Iran de-escalation hopes Brent Crude: ~$95.34, -4% Gold: lower as the safe-haven b
S&P 500 (SPX): 6,886.24, +1.0%
Nasdaq Composite: 23,183.74, +1.2%
Dow Jones (DJIA): 48,218.25, +0.6%
Russell 2000 (RUT): higher with large-cap risk
VIX (the market’s “fear gauge”): eased as Iran tensions cooled
10Y Treasury Yield: modestly higher on returning risk appetite
WTI Crude: ~$92.34, -7% on Iran de-escalation hopes
Brent Crude: ~$95.34, -4%
Gold: lower as the safe-haven bid faded
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index): firmer alongside higher yields
A clean risk-on tape — equities up, oil down, VIX softer — the textbook trio when geopolitical risk is being priced out. Mega-cap tech did the heavy lifting.
Information Technology (XLK): strongest — MSFT, CRM-led
Consumer Discretionary (XLY): Amazon mega-cap bid
Communication Services (XLC): Meta strength
Financials (XLF): higher on JPM despite WFC, GS drag
Industrials (XLI): modest cyclical bid
Materials (XLB): higher, reflation tone
Real Estate (XLRE): small gain as yields stabilized
Health Care (XLV): mixed; JNJ beat offset peers
Consumer Staples (XLP): lagged on WMT drag
Utilities (XLU): flat-to-lower; defensives rotated out
Energy (XLE): worst — oil slide hit producers
Cyclicals and growth in, defensives and energy out — the classic signature of risk-off unwinding while a soft inflation print keeps the rate-cut door open.
Gainers
CRM (Salesforce): +4.76% — software momentum, broader tech bid
MSFT (Microsoft): +3.63% — AI-capex narrative intact
AXP (American Express): +3.22% — consumer-credit strength
Losers
GS (Goldman Sachs): -1.83% — profit-taking ahead of its print
WMT (Walmart): -1.73% — staples rotation
VZ (Verizon): -1.46% — yield-sensitive defensive sold
The S&P 500 heavyweights reported before the bell, leaving the after-hours tape quiet. Morning prints:
JPM: EPS $5.94 vs $5.45; revenue $50.54B vs $49.17B. Record trading. Cut full-year net interest income (NII — spread between loan yields and funding costs) guide to ~$103B from $104.5B.
WFC: EPS beat, revenue and NII missed; shares -6.6%.
JNJ: profit beat consensus.
C: EPS $3.06 vs $2.64; revenue $24.6B vs $23.72B.
BLK: strong AUM-driven beat; shares higher.
Trading desks are minting money; lending economics are softening at the margin.
March PPI (Producer Price Index — wholesale inflation, the pipeline that feeds CPI): +0.5% MoM, well below the +1.1% consensus. Headline 12-month at 4.0% — hottest since early 2023, but the monthly miss was the story. Markets read it as goods inflation moderating, not accelerating.
Bank earnings: GS, BAC, regionals before the open
Industrial production and capacity utilization later in the week
Fed speakers scattered through the day
Treasury auction supply in focus
The setup favors continued bank-earnings rotation, contingent on tomorrow’s prints validating today’s JPM-led tone.
Today checked the boxes bulls were waiting for: oil down on diplomacy, mega-cap leadership, a soft PPI print, and a credible bank-earnings kickoff. The weight of evidence tilts risk-on near term, but the rally leans on a narrow group — watch SPX 6,900 as the next resistance and the 10Y reaction to tomorrow’s data.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The author is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial planner. All analysis represents the author’s interpretation of publicly available data and may contain errors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Markets involve substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
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